How we value cars
Every step of the estimator's full recipe is laid out here, in order. Every factor and every table appears here, so you can figure out any number by hand.
Step 1: Start from the price when new
Every estimate begins with the car's price when it was new. Then that price gets multiplied by a factor for every thing that changes value: age, condition, model, vehicle type and miles. Depreciation is what you call the drop in a car's value as it ages.
A factor is simply a multiplier. With a factor of 0.84, 84% of the value stays, while anything above 1 raises it a bit.
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Estimated value = price when new × age factor × vehicle-type factor × model factor × mileage factor × condition factor
Every one of those factors is a plain number. Before they are multiplied, the factors for type, model and mileage are rounded to three decimals, and the rounded numbers are what you see here. No rounding is applied to the middle value until the final step. Then both ends of every range get rounded to the nearest $100.
Step 2: Cut the value for age
The sharpest drop in a car's value comes in the early years. The well-known guide Kelley Blue Book (KBB) puts a car's retained value at about 84% one year in and about 45% after five years.
Carfax, the company that provides car history reports, says a new car falls about 10% in its first month. A car from this model year or the next one starts at 90%. Once you're past year five, each year takes about a tenth of the value that's left. An estimate never drops below $500, or below 3% of the price new if that's higher.
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Subtract the model year from the current year to get age, and age never goes below 0. Kelley Blue Book's average depreciation figures for new cars supply the numbers for years 1 to 5. At age 0, a current-year or next-year car keeps 90% of its value, matching the first-month drop of roughly 10% for a new car, as Carfax reports. Past year 5, every extra year takes 10% off whatever value is left, a rate that sits within KBB's 8 to 12% each year. The floor is whichever number is higher, 3% of the price when new or $500, and no estimate goes below it.
| Age | Age factor | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.900 | Carfax first-month drop |
| 1 year | 0.840 | KBB table |
| 2 years | 0.720 | KBB table |
| 3 years | 0.610 | KBB table |
| 4 years | 0.520 | KBB table |
| 5 years | 0.450 | KBB table |
| 6 years | 0.405 | 10% a year after year 5 |
| 7 years | 0.365 | 10% a year after year 5 |
| 8 years | 0.328 | 10% a year after year 5 |
| 9 years | 0.295 | 10% a year after year 5 |
| 10 years | 0.266 | 10% a year after year 5 |
Step 3: Adjust for vehicle type and model
Some vehicle kinds keep more of their value than other kinds do. The car shopping site iSeeCars examined 950,000 cars that were five years old and found an average value loss of 41.8%. Trucks and hybrids lost less, which pushes their estimate up a little. A hybrid pairs a gas engine with an electric motor. Electric cars and SUVs gave up more value, so their estimate drops.
The result for the model you pick nudges the estimate once more, if that model was part of the study.
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The type factor draws on the iSeeCars 2026 study. Each type's five-year loss is weighed against the average of 41.8% for all vehicles. Subtract the type loss from 1, then divide by 1 minus 0.418.
| Vehicle type | Lost in 5 years | Type factor |
|---|---|---|
| Car (all-vehicle average) | 41.8% | 1.000 |
| SUV | 44.9% | 0.947 |
| Truck | 34.2% | 1.131 |
| Hybrid | 35.4% | 1.110 |
| Electric | 57.2% | 0.735 |
If the study includes your make and model, the model factor sets the two five-year losses against each other: (1 − model loss) ÷ (1 − type loss). A model the study left out is given a factor of 1.000. Each model in the table below is compared with the vehicle type it belongs to.
| Make | Model | Type | Lost in 5 years | Model factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audi | A7 | Car | 56.5% | 0.747 |
| Audi | A8 L | Car | 57.6% | 0.729 |
| Audi | Q5 | Hybrid | 58.2% | 0.647 |
| Audi | Q7 | SUV | 57.2% | 0.777 |
| BMW | 5 Series | Hybrid | 59.5% | 0.627 |
| BMW | 7 Series | Car | 61.6% | 0.660 |
| BMW | X5 | Hybrid | 57.1% | 0.664 |
| Cadillac | Escalade ESV | SUV | 57.0% | 0.780 |
| Chevrolet | Colorado | Truck | 37.7% | 0.947 |
| Chevrolet | Corvette | Car | 18.7% | 1.397 |
| Chevrolet | Silverado 1500 | Truck | 39.7% | 0.916 |
| Chevrolet | Suburban | SUV | 49.7% | 0.913 |
| Chevrolet | Tahoe | SUV | 45.3% | 0.993 |
| Ford | Bronco | SUV | 39.9% | 1.091 |
| Ford | Escape Hybrid | Hybrid | 47.1% | 0.819 |
| Ford | Expedition MAX | SUV | 56.3% | 0.793 |
| Ford | Explorer Hybrid | Hybrid | 54.2% | 0.709 |
| Ford | F-150 | Truck | 37.9% | 0.944 |
| Ford | Mustang | Car | 26.8% | 1.258 |
| Ford | Mustang Mach-E | Electric | 60.8% | 0.916 |
| Ford | Ranger | Truck | 30.2% | 1.061 |
| GMC | Canyon | Truck | 33.6% | 1.009 |
| GMC | Sierra 1500 | Truck | 38.7% | 0.932 |
| GMC | Yukon | SUV | 48.0% | 0.944 |
| Honda | Accord | Car | 30.5% | 1.194 |
| Honda | Accord Hybrid | Hybrid | 36.8% | 0.978 |
| Honda | Civic | Car | 22.9% | 1.325 |
| Honda | CR-V | SUV | 28.9% | 1.290 |
| Honda | CR-V Hybrid | Hybrid | 34.1% | 1.020 |
| Honda | HR-V | SUV | 28.8% | 1.292 |
| Honda | Ridgeline | Truck | 37.6% | 0.948 |
| Hyundai | Kona Electric | Electric | 56.5% | 1.016 |
| Hyundai | Sonata Hybrid | Hybrid | 46.8% | 0.824 |
| Infiniti | QX60 | SUV | 58.3% | 0.757 |
| Infiniti | QX80 | SUV | 62.8% | 0.675 |
| Jaguar | F-PACE | SUV | 56.5% | 0.789 |
| Jeep | Gladiator | Truck | 32.9% | 1.020 |
| Jeep | Wrangler | SUV | 32.4% | 1.227 |
| Kia | Niro | Hybrid | 44.4% | 0.861 |
| Kia | Niro EV | Electric | 57.3% | 0.998 |
| Kia | Niro Plug-In Hybrid | Hybrid | 44.4% | 0.861 |
| Kia | Sorento Hybrid | Hybrid | 50.6% | 0.765 |
| Land Rover | Discovery | SUV | 57.9% | 0.764 |
| Land Rover | Range Rover | SUV | 61.7% | 0.695 |
| Land Rover | Range Rover Sport | SUV | 58.3% | 0.757 |
| Lexus | ES 300h | Hybrid | 39.9% | 0.930 |
| Lexus | RC 300 / 350 | Car | 26.6% | 1.261 |
| Lexus | RX 350 | SUV | 32.8% | 1.220 |
| Lincoln | Navigator | SUV | 56.3% | 0.793 |
| Mazda | MX-5 Miata | Car | 31.5% | 1.177 |
| Mercedes-Benz | G-Class | SUV | 34.0% | 1.198 |
| Mercedes-Benz | GLC | Hybrid | 51.4% | 0.752 |
| Mercedes-Benz | GLS | SUV | 51.6% | 0.878 |
| Mitsubishi | Outlander PHEV | Hybrid | 50.4% | 0.768 |
| Nissan | Armada | SUV | 57.0% | 0.780 |
| Nissan | Frontier | Truck | 35.5% | 0.980 |
| Nissan | LEAF | Electric | 63.1% | 0.862 |
| Porsche | 718 Cayman | Car | 9.6% | 1.553 |
| Porsche | 911 | Car | 11.1% | 1.527 |
| Porsche | Cayenne | Hybrid | 49.1% | 0.788 |
| Porsche | Taycan | Electric | 54.7% | 1.058 |
| Ram | 1500 | Truck | 37.8% | 0.945 |
| Subaru | BRZ | Car | 23.7% | 1.311 |
| Subaru | Crosstrek | SUV | 29.1% | 1.287 |
| Subaru | Forester | SUV | 32.6% | 1.223 |
| Subaru | Impreza | Car | 29.2% | 1.216 |
| Subaru | WRX | Car | 29.8% | 1.206 |
| Tesla | Model 3 | Electric | 54.6% | 1.061 |
| Tesla | Model S | Electric | 62.0% | 0.888 |
| Tesla | Model X | Electric | 61.2% | 0.907 |
| Tesla | Model Y | Electric | 57.8% | 0.986 |
| Toyota | 4Runner | SUV | 25.5% | 1.352 |
| Toyota | Corolla | Car | 27.6% | 1.244 |
| Toyota | Corolla Hatchback | Car | 25.5% | 1.280 |
| Toyota | Corolla Hybrid | Hybrid | 30.1% | 1.082 |
| Toyota | GR Supra | Car | 24.0% | 1.306 |
| Toyota | Highlander | SUV | 36.0% | 1.162 |
| Toyota | Highlander Hybrid | Hybrid | 34.3% | 1.017 |
| Toyota | Prius | Hybrid | 32.1% | 1.051 |
| Toyota | RAV4 | SUV | 25.2% | 1.358 |
| Toyota | RAV4 Hybrid | Hybrid | 25.3% | 1.156 |
| Toyota | Sienna | Hybrid | 28.5% | 1.107 |
| Toyota | Tacoma | Truck | 19.9% | 1.217 |
| Toyota | Tundra | Truck | 21.2% | 1.198 |
| Volkswagen | ID.4 | Electric | 62.1% | 0.886 |
Step 4: Count miles and check condition
A car is expected to cover about 12,000 miles in a year. Go above that and the value drops a bit, go below and it rises a bit, but only so far. If mileage is left empty, we go with 12,000 miles a year, and you'll see that in the result.
Next comes condition. Excellent adds 8%, while Good keeps the value unchanged. Fair reduces it by 15%, and Poor reduces it by 35%. Choose Poor and the result adds a note. When a car has a salvage or rebuilt title, an insurer previously found that repairing it wasn't worthwhile. It usually costs another 20 to 40%.
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A 5-year-old car driven 12,000 miles a year should show about 60,000 miles. The mileage factor drops 3% for every 10,000 miles above that total. It rises 3% for every 10,000 miles below. It stays between 0.70 and 1.15. If you don't enter mileage, the tool applies the expected miles. It also tells you that it did this.
| Condition | What it looks like | Factor |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | looks new, no body work, full service records | 1.08 |
| Good | minor wear, no major mechanical problems | 1.00 |
| Fair | needs some cosmetic or mechanical repairs, still runs | 0.85 |
| Poor | significant problems, may not pass inspection | 0.65 |
Selecting Poor also displays the salvage or rebuilt title note. These titles take another 20 to 40% off. Kelley Blue Book is the source of that rule of thumb.
Step 5: Turn one figure into three price ranges
The final result is the private party value, which serves as the main figure. If you sell the car yourself, another person might pay roughly that amount. Dealers who take your car as a trade-in for another car usually pay about 15% less. Dealer retail means what a dealer would ask, and it's about 18% more.
Every value has a range of about 6% below to 6% above. Both ends round to the nearest $100. A monthly U.S. government price index adjusts the figures for changes in U.S. used car prices since we collected the data.
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The middle value gives Private party at 6% down and 6% up. Trade-in uses 85% of the middle value, while dealer retail uses 118%. Each range goes 6% under and over its starting figure. To get the market factor, divide the most recent BLS used cars and trucks index by the index from the month the tables were captured, then round to three decimals.
| Series | Latest month | Latest index | Base index | Market factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CUSR0000SETA02 | September 2026 | 182.176 | 182.176 | 1.000 |
Full walkthrough of two cars
Two real examples follow. Car number one: a 2021 Honda Civic, $23,000 when new, 61,000 miles, Good condition. Car number two: a 2019 pickup truck, $45,000 when new, 110,000 miles, Fair condition. Whenever we update the site, we check that the calculator still gives these same results.
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Before each build, we run both examples through the model. If any range differs, the build stops.
| Figure | 2021 Honda Civic, $23,000 new, 61,000 miles, Good | 2019 pickup truck, $45,000 new, 110,000 miles, Fair |
|---|---|---|
| Age factor | 0.450 | 0.365 |
| Type factor | 1.000 | 1.131 |
| Model factor | 1.325 | 1.000 |
| Mileage factor | 0.997 | 0.922 |
| Condition factor | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| Middle value | $13,673 | $14,539 |
| Private party | $12,900 to $14,500 | $13,700 to $15,400 |
| Trade-in | $10,900 to $12,300 | $11,600 to $13,100 |
| Dealer retail | $15,200 to $17,100 | $16,100 to $18,200 |
Sources for the numbers
Every figure shown here comes from a public source. Below, each source is listed with what it provides.
- Kelley Blue Book, car depreciation: how much value a car keeps on average in years 1 to 5, plus a yearly drop of 8 to 12% after that.
- iSeeCars research on cars that hold value: the 2026 edition, which lists five-year losses by vehicle type and by model.
- NHTSA vPIC, a service of the U.S. road safety agency: it provides the makes and models list and the VIN lookup. The 17-character VIN is the number that identifies a car. A VIN lookup fills in the model, make and year for you.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This U.S. government office tracks prices. It supplies the index for used cars and trucks, published monthly, within the Consumer Price Index (CPI), under series code CUSR0000SETA02.
- Carfax: it reports a 10% drop in a car's value during its first month, which is used at age 0.